Not a lot of takers on this game, or are we just waiting until the bowls get closer?
My bowl predictions include each team's
Atomic Football Win-Loss Ranking as of 12/04/07.
DEADLINE #1 - Thursday, December 20th, 9:00am PST
12/20 - Poinsettia -
#42 Utah vs. #55 Navy
BYU snapped Utah's 7-game win-streak in the last game of the season; still, in their last eight games Utah has outscored their opponents 243-110. Navy's resume? 1-3 vs. bowl teams this season, including home losses to Ball State (by 3) and Wake Forest (by 20), a home loss to I-AA/FCS Delaware (who might be the I-AA/FCS Champion this season, not as bad as it sounds), a three-point win over 1-11 Duke, a three-point win over 5-7 Pittsburgh, a two-point win over 3-9 Notre Dame, and a "win" over 2-10 North Texas in which they gave up 62 points.
12/21 - New Orleans -
#67 Florida Atlantic vs. #92 Memphis
Worst bowl game of the season? Each team has exactly one win over a team that ended the season with a winning record, and got thoroughly slaughtered when facing top-tier teams. Both teams have decent passing offenses and not a lick of defense, so this could be a high scoring one. Memphis is the second-lowest ranked team with a winning record at Atomic Football, however, at #92 out of #120 I-A/FBS schools total.
12/22 - Papajohns.com -
#22 Cincinnati vs. #85 Southern Mississippi
The Bearcats deserved better than this. They went 9-3 in a meat-grinder Big East but are relagated to play a Southern Miss team that padded their record by beating up on a bunch of jabrones (say it with me: Southern Miss had exactly one win over a team that ended the season with a winning record). USM has a decent rushing game, but it shouldn't be a problem for the stingy Cincinnati defense.
12/22 - New Mexico - #86 Nevada vs.
#57 New Mexico
Nevada ups the ante: the 6-6 Wolf Pack didn't beat ANY team with a winning record (though to be fair, they were in almost every game: only one loss was by more than eight points). New Mexico lost conference games to BYU, TCU and Utah (all bowl teams) and... UTEP. Eek. This is basically a home game for the Lobos, so the edge goes to them. But if Nevada's high-powered offense scores 20+ in the first half, watch out, because New Mexico can't win a shoot-out with Nevada.
12/22 - Las Vegas - #41 UCLA vs.
#19 BYU
Surprisingly, UCLA beat BYU 27-17 back on September 8th. I say surprisingly, because after that game UCLA went 4-6 and BYU went 9-1. UCLA finished the season with four losses in their last five games; BYU finished their season with nine straight wins (six by two scores or more). UCLA is in turmoil, with a ton of injuries and a fired coach. Talk about two teams heading in opposite directions.
12/23 - Hawai'i -
#40 Boise State vs. #70 East Carolina
Boise State will finish their season with two consecutive games in Hawai'i, becoming (I believe) the first team not named Hawai'i to do so. This game could get ugly in a hurry. ECU doesn't exactly have a rock-solid defense, having yielded 30+ in seven games this season. Boise State, on the other hand, scored 30+ in nine games this season, including 50+ in five. Take the over in this one.
12/26 - Motor City - #66 Central Michigan vs.
#53 Purdue
September 15th - Purdue 45, CMU 22. Since then, Purdue went 4-5 in the Big Ten and CMU went 7-3 in the MAC. The difference?
TEN of the eleven teams in the Big Ten finished .500 or better. Only ONE team (Minnesota) had a losing record. Now, Purdue doesn't have a single win that impresses me, and they finished the season with three straight losses, but we're talking varsity versus JV here.
12/27 - Holiday -
#10 Arizona State vs. #28 Texas
For whatever reason, the Holiday Bowl always seems to get two almost-great teams that produce a heart-stopping bowl match-up. Several Holiday Bowls from the 1980s are among the best bowl games of all time, and this year's is certainly shaping up to be a good one. The question mark here in Texas' surprisingly suspect defense, which gave up 116 points in their last three games (35 or more in each). On the other hand, Arizona State gave up 35 or more only twice all season: not surprisingly, in their two losses to one-time national title contenders Oregon and USC. The Longhorns travel well but the Sun Devils are closer and should pack the Murph, giving the team from Arizona a bit of a home-field advantage.
DEADLINE #2 - Friday, December 28th, 9:00am PST
12/28 - Texas - #64 TCU vs.
#80 Houston
This is the song that never ends... it just goes on and on my friends... (Houston: 0 wins vs. teams with winning records, and their schedule was even easier than Hawaii's; TCU: 1 such win - New Mexico. Throw out New Mexico, and TCU's other six wins came against teams with a combined 17-55 record.) So that brings the total so far to six, maybe more, bowl teams that didn't defeat two winning teams during the regular season? So tell me again how the bowl system isn't completely watered-down and why we don't need a playoff system?
12/28 - Champ Sports - #6 Boston College vs.
#45 Michigan State
Now THIS is more like it. THIS is a bowl game. NINE wins between these two teams against opponents that ended the season with a winning record. Both of these teams are very good, but I'm going for the upset pick here. I don't think people realize just how good of a 7-5 team Michigan State is. All five losses were by a touchdown or less, three of them to teams playing January bowl games. And Michigan State beat bowl-bound Indiana, Purdue, and Penn State by a combined 46 points.
12/28 - Emerald - #37 Maryland vs.
#21 Oregon State
Oregon State has kind of flown under the radar for most of the season, but they're a pretty good 8-4 team from a pretty good conference. Maryland is from a pretty good conference, but has looked decidedly mediocre all year, needing a win in their last game to reach 6-6 and bowl eligibility.
12/29 - Meineke Car Care -
#24 Wake Forest vs. #20 Connecticut
I was looking over these two teams' bodies of work and had the initial impression that UConn was the better team. Then I noticed something: UConn had a home-heavy schedule and their last three road games? All losses. UConn hasn't won a game outside Connecticut since September. Wake Forest (from Winston-Salem, NC) was 6-1 in the state of North Carolina this season (home and away). The Meineke Car Care Bowl? Charlotte, NC.
12/29 - Liberty -
#39 Central Florida vs. #38 Mississippi State
Quick: name the only 10-win team in Florida this year. Yep, it's the Central Florida Golden Knights (10-3), not South Florida (9-3), not Florida (9-3), not Florida State (7-5) or Miami (5-7). And those three losses were all against bowl teams (including a 3-point squeaker in their home-opener against Texas). Sylvester Croom has done an admirable job at Mississippi State in the meat-grinder SEC but, while I'm generally loathe to pick mid-major schools over BCS conference schools, UCF has been far more consistent this season (they're on a seven-game win streak).
12/29 - Alamo -
#32 Penn State vs. #33 Texas A&M
The cash machines from College Station had lost three straight before upsetting Texas in the last game of the season. True, those three losses were against Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri (no shame there), but more puzzling is the early season loss to Miami. Penn State's losses are just as "quality": three road losses to bowl teams (including BCS-bound Illinois) and a home loss versus Ohio State. In the end, I think Texas A&M's offense is too easy to shut down [all of their 30+ point performances were against sub-par opponents (Montana State, Fresno State, Louisiana-Monroe) and conference opponents with shaky defenses (Baylor, Nebraska, Texas)], and I think Penn State will be able to do just that.
12/30 - Independence - #48 Colorado vs.
#49 Alabama
Two 6-6 teams that shouldn't be in bowl games. Colorado has been Jekyll & Hyde all year, looking alternately great (wins versus Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Nebraska) and horrid (losses to Kansas State and Iowa State, destroyed by Missouri). Alabama's been a bit more legit: losing by a combined 22 points to Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn is nothing to be ashamed of. Both had home games against Florida State and lost: Alabama by seven, Colorado by ten. Does that make 'Bama three points better than Colorado? Well, maybe it does.
12/31 - Armed Forces - #47 California vs.
#35 Air Force
Cal was 5-0, ready to take over the #1 ranking in the nation... and then rookie QB Kevin Riley made an ill-advised late-game scramble, Cal lost a heart-breaker to Oregon State and embarked on an absolutely EPIC collapse. Cal went 1-6 in its last seven games, and after scoring 30+ each of their first five games they haven't reached that point plateau since. The Cal program is a disaster, and supposed "genius" coach Jeff Tedford doesn't have any answers. I wouldn't pick Cal over any other team in the nation right now, not even Duke or Notre Dame.
12/31 - Humanitarian -
#60 Fresno State vs. #34 Georgia Tech
Do I think Fresno State is a better team than Georgia Tech? No. Do I think Fresno State will "want it" more in the cold and snow of Boise? Yes. Fresno State's four losses were to Texas A&M (by 2), Oregon, Boise State, and Hawai'i, which is pretty respectable. Sure, they haven't beaten a team worth snot all season, but Georgia Tech is pretty much in the same arena: aside from an early season victory over Clemson, GT went 0-5 against the other bowl teams they faced. Oh, and they just fired their coach.
12/31 - Sun - #26 Oregon vs.
#14 South Florida
Sure, one guy does not make a team, but it's no coincidence that Oregon lost their last three games after Dennis Dixon got hurt. USF (they prefer to be called USF just like "Southern California" prefers to be called USC) was once a national-title contender and it's easy to see why. They had a mid-season swoon in which they lost three straight (at Rutgers, at Connecticut, and home versus Cincinnati, all bowl teams) by a combined 15 points, then rebounded to demolish Syracuse, Louisville and Pittsburgh by 80 points to end the season on a three-game win streak. USF outscored their opponents 355-158 in their nine wins, and the Bulls athletic defense should cause havoc on Oregon's offense. A game that
sounds like a good match-up but might not even be close.
12/31 - Music City -
#30 Kentucky vs. #27 Florida State
Ah, Cinderella, the ball is over so fast. Kentucky, I think, is a bit over-rated thanks to that one OT win against LSU. Assuming LSU had pulled that game out, Kentucky would have been 1-6 in their last seven games and maybe not have made a bowl game. Most of Florida State's struggles this season were against strong defensive teams, something I would not classify Kentucky as, so I think Old Man Bowden and the Noles will pull this one out.
[Updated 12/19: changed pick to Kentucky due to large number of Florida State players suspended for this game.]
12/31 - Chick-fil-A - #23 Auburn vs.
#13 Clemson
Clemson held opponents to 21 points or less in ten of twelve games. Auburn padded their win total a bit with non-conference tilts against New Mexico State and Tennessee Tech (not to mention a schedule of eight home games versus only four road games). And is this a grudge match? Terry Bowden did not part ways with Auburn on good terms back in 1998, and his brother Tommy is Clemson's head coach. Some family revenge might be in order. And holy mackerel will there be a lot of orange in that stadium on New Year's Eve. But Clemson's the better team.
12/31 - Insight - #61 Indiana vs.
#44 Oklahoma State
The teams are pretty evenly matched. Both beat two other lower-bowl teams. Both padded their win column with a non-conference slate that included a I-AA/FCS opponent and two I-A/FBS mid-major opponents. Both have solid offenses and shaky defenses. So, basically, it comes down to the conference slates. And which is more impressive: 3-5 in the Big Ten or 4-4 in the Big Twelve? As inspirational as Indiana has been this year (rallying to a bowl game after the sudden death of their former coach), I have to go with Oklahoma State; especially considering that two losses (by one at Texas A&M and by three versus Texas) were games they should've won.
DEADLINE #3 - Tuesday, January 1st, 8:00am PST
1/1 - Outback - #25 Wisconsin vs.
#15 Tennessee
Doesn't this sound like a quintessential New Year's Day bowl? I'm not sure what to make out of Tennessee. On one hand, they walloped Georgia and hung tough with LSU in the SEC Title game; on the other hand, they lost two road games to 6-6 teams (Cal and Bama) and struggled to eek out home wins over Vandy (5-7) and South Carolina (6-6). Wisconsin looks pretty good at 9-3, until you realize that they have been pretty crummy away from Camp Randall: in their two road victories they struggled to beat Mountain West cellar-dweller UNLV and Big Ten bottom feeder Minnesota (two teams that combined for a record of 3-21 this year), and they lost to Illinois and lost big to Penn State and Ohio State. And, well, the Outback Bowl isn't being played in Madison, so...
1/1 - Cotton -
#2 Missouri vs. #31 Arkansas
And the award for the biggest BCS screw-job goes to... the University of Missouri Tigers! Missouri beats Kansas, they both finish with 11 wins... but Kansas gets a BCS bid and Missouri does not? Oklahoma just had Missouri's number: no other team held Missouri below 35 points, Oklahoma did twice; no other team scored more than 35 on Missouri, Oklahoma did twice. Arkansas' uniforms kind look like Oklahoma's (similar color scheme), but uh, I don't think that's going to be enough to stop Chase Daniel, even with Darren McFadden.
1/1 - Gator - #43 Texas Tech vs.
#16 Virginia
I'm worried Virginia isn't this good of a team. I dunno why, maybe it's because they lost to Wyoming and North Carolina State, or maybe it's because six of their nine wins came by a total of twelve points. Toss out a 44-14 victory over Pittsburgh and a 48-0 crushing of Miami (both 5-7 teams) and Virginia went 7-3 in their other ten games... while being
outscored 211-197. But... the Cavaliers defense has been solid, only allowing one team (Virginia Tech) to break the 30-point barrier all season. So what's going to break in this game, the unstoppable force (Texas Tech's offense) or the immovable object (Virginia's defense)?
1/1 - Capital One - #29 Michigan vs.
#9 Florida
Hey, remember WAY back in September, when athletic QB Dennis Dixon and the Oregon Ducks absolutely destroyed Michigan? Is there any reason to think soon-to-be Heisman winner Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators won't do the same thing? Michigan vs. Florida
sounds like a great New Year's Day bowl... but I bet this one isn't even close.
1/1 - Rose -
#12 USC vs. #17 Illinois
Here's an amazing stat: in Pete Carroll's seven seasons as coach, the Trojans have lost exactly ONE game by more than seven points. ONE. In almost 90 games. Strength versus strength in this match-up, as a steamroller Illinois running game (266 yards per game) clashes with an air-tight USC rush defense (79 yards per game allowed). But you pretty much have to be crazy to bet against Carroll in January, and I don't think Juice Williams will go Vince Young on the Trojans.
1/1 - Sugar - #18 Hawai'i vs.
#5 Georgia
Congrats to Hawai'i for making the BCS, but what sucks here is that Georgia's going to stomp the tar out of them and people are going to dismiss Hawai'i's season out of hand without giving them credit for going 12-0. 12-0 is 12-0, even if you do have the third-easiest schedule in football (Hawai'i's strength of schedule this year was 118th out of 120; only Houston and Western Kentucky had easier schedules in I-A/FBS). And Georgia is flat out good: Georgia's last five games (all victories over bowl teams) were won by an average of 14 points per game. But Colt Brennan certainly benefitted from tired defenses that had to make the long trip to Hawai'i: in two mainland games versus 1-11 Idaho and 5-7 San Jose State, Brennan threw nine (NINE!) interceptions. So what do you think Georgia's defense will do to Colt and the Warriors? Georgia is an exponentially better team than anyone Hawai'i's faced this season [Remember: Hawai'i's "big win" came versus Boise State, a team that lost to Pac-10 also-ran Washington (a team Hawai'i also struggled against)].
1/2 - Fiesta -
#8 Oklahoma vs. #11 West Virginia
I don't know what to make of these two. Oklahoma can beat Missouri twice, but loses to Colorado and Texas Tech? West Virginia, in the biggest game in the school's history, BCS Title Game berth on the line, at home, doesn't just lose to their arch-rival but lays an ostrich-sized egg (how does that offense only manage one TD in their biggest game ever?). Aside from that, these two teams have looked like world-beaters. But Bob Stoops and Oklahoma are 0-3 in their last three BCS bowls, and West Virginia has shown an alarming penchant for 2nd half turnovers this season. I'll go with the Sooners, if for no other reason than the fact they still have the taste of LAST season's Fiesta Bowl (versus Boise State in one of the greatest games ever played) to get out of their mouths.
1/3 - Orange -
#1 Virginia Tech vs. #7 Kansas
Virginia Tech, #1 in Atomic Ratings? The same VT that got blown-up by LSU, 48-7, in the second game of the season? And yet... out of thirteen games played, LSU's 48 comprises nearly a quarter of all the points VT gave up all season. No other team even scored
half that amount against the Hokies. If only there was a way (I dunno, some sort of playoff system, maybe) to give Virginia Tech a chance to redeem themselves against LSU and maybe a shot at the national title. As much as I've liked Kansas's story this year, their 78th-rated strength of schedule (they only faced three winning teams all season) doesn't inspire confidence. I think Virginia Tech's defense is going to put on a show.
1/5 - International -
#46 Rutgers vs. #73 Ball State
A college bowl game... played in Canada... during an NFL wild-card weekend? What, are like six people going to tune into this game? I keep this mercifully short: I know some people who attend Rutgers, so I'll go with the Scarlet Knights.
1/6 - GMAC - #69 Bowling Green vs.
#59 Tulsa
A college bowl game... played in Mobile, AL... during an NFL wild-card weekend? What, are like six people going to tune into this game? Tulsa took down BYU and Houston and has a pretty decent offense, so let's go with them.
1/7 - BCS Championship - #4 Ohio State vs.
#3 LSU
I know you're expecting the same sort of heavy, analytical breakdown I've provided for most other games but, quite simply, I couldn't pick a team (Ohio State) that had a non-conference slate of Youngstown State (I-AA/FCS), Akron (4-8), Washington (4-9) and Kent State (3-9) and still have any dignity left.
Bonus - Combined Score: Rose -
60
Bonus - Combined Score: Sugar -
45
Bonus - Combined Score: Fiesta -
72
Bonus - Combined Score: Orange -
30
Bonus - Combined Score: BCS Championship
50
I'll get back with you on my picks for the first round by the deadline (considering I really don't like football and told everyone I'm not posting here anymore, it won't matter if I mess it up too much).
